Sam's for the Hills

After four long weeks of talking the talk, it is now finally time for Donegal and Mayo to walk the walk. The All-Ireland final is finally upon us, and both sides go into it confident of seeing their team lift the Sam Maguire. It has been billed as a novel final and it is certainly the most talked about final in recent years. Donegal go into the match as favourites, however, support for Mayo has grown throughout the week, with numerous pundits tipping them for glory.

In Dara O’Se’s preview, he predicted a Mayo win because their forwards are not luxuries, and not solely on the pitch to kick scores. He believes they will be prepared to track Donegal’s defenders when they drive out of defence. This is an interesting point, but at what stage do you start telling your forwards to stop worrying about your opponent, and start concentrating on yourself? Mayo’s forwards ultimate job is to kick them to an All-Ireland title. They can’t do that if they’re back in the right-half back position.

Against Dublin, Mayo worked the ball up the flanks, and kicked the ball into the corners. This proved successful and they will need to do that again, because Donegal will not allow them through the middle. They were also able to kick lots of impressive scores from distance. They will beat Donegal if they can repeat that performance on Sunday. But will Donegal allow Mayo the same kind of space that Dublin gave them? I doubt it. It will be a different story when they have three or four men closing them down.

In the final twenty minutes of that game, Mayo collapsed. They looked unfit, and Dublin almost beat them despite being ten points down at one stage. Kevin McManamon caused Mayo a lot of problems when he ran at them, and Donegal must get Ryan Bradley, Mark McHugh and Rory Kavanagh to do a similar role, and run at their defence. If they do so, they will win frees and kick points. From the 53^rd minute of their semi-final victory, Mayo players started to go down with cramp. It is usually around this time, that Donegal start to turn the screw on their opposition.

Mayo also had a poor start against Dublin, and Cillian O’Connor showed great nerve to land two ‘45’s and help them settle into the match. O’Connor has received rave reviews since that game for his free-taking exploits. People are quick to point out that Donegal only gave away one scoreable free against Cork. But I think they will be doing really well to repeat that feat. They will have to be extra disciplined, especially early in the match, as the referee, Maurice Deegan, will be trying to put his stamp on the game, and may award some soft frees. It is important that Donegal reduce the amount of opportunities O’Connor gets, because if he gets his confidence up, he will be very hard to stop.

National pundits have talked about how Donegal might suffer as a result of all the hype that has been built around them. I agree that some of the build –up has been ridiculous, but people are excited about the GAA and as far as I am concerned, that’s a good thing. Jim McGuinness can’t do anything about the hype. He’s not out painting sheep or arguing about the homecoming. He and James Horan will have their players totally focussed on the game, and I don’t think the hype will have any bearing on the match whatsoever.

The battle between Karl Lacey and Alan Dillon will be fascinating to watch. Dillon is the conductor of the Mayo attack, he’s the man that makes them tick, and Donegal will surely target him as the man to stop. Lacey has a good record at eliminating the threat of the opposition’s playmaker, and he will have to be at the top of his game to that against Dillon. I also expect both goalkeepers, David Clarke and Paul Durcan, to have a big say on the result. They are competing against each other for an All-Star and both have had impressive years. Neither man gives away goals easily, and both will know that if they keep clean sheets, they will have put their team in a great position.

Ger Cafferky has probably been the stand-out full-back this year, but he will have his hands full against Michael Murphy. Murphy has had the upper hand on Cafferky in previous games, and he certainly won’t fear the Mayo man. Whether the Glenswily man is at the height of his fitness is another question. However, Murphy really is a man that stands up when it really counts. Against Derry in last year’s Ulster final and then for Glenswilly in the Donegal County Final, when the big day came, he was not found wanting.

Colm McFadden against Keith Higgins will be another intriguing battle. Higgins had a great semi-final, yet he had a tendency to roam up the field and lose Diarmuid Connolly, his direct opponent. McFadden will not follow Higgins if he marauds up the field, and will be looking to get in space instead, in the hope that Donegal will turnover the ball. I’d imaging Frank McGlynn will follow Kevin McLoughlin, and Donegal will need to curb his influence. It was no coincidence that Mayo played poorly when he went off against Dublin, and Donegal must stop him from getting on the ball.

I would worry about the midfield battle. Neil Gallagher was exceptional against Cork, but that was the only game this year in which Donegal have dominated the middle sector. On the other hand, Aidan O’Shea and Barry Moran have been in superb form all year. They win a lot of clean possession and they also put a lot of work in around the field. There are rumours that O’Shea has a tweaked hamstring, so I’d imagine that Donegal will test him out at the start of the match.

The one thing that can’t be forecasted is who will want to win the match the most. Who will have the hunger? That’s why playing Dublin would have been more favourable for Donegal. They won their All-Ireland last year, and hadn’t the same drive this year. Donegal and Mayo players have never tasted All-Ireland success and they will be determined to be climbing the Hogan Stand steps at the end of the game. The one thing that seems certain, is that if Donegal are to be victorious they will at least have to match Mayo in terms of fight and desire to win.

I think the game will follow a similar pattern to the Ulster semi-final against Tyrone. The first half will be a tight, tense affair, with not much between the sides. I’d then expect Donegal’s superior fitness to put them into the lead, before Mayo stage a late fight-back, with Donegal clinging on to victory by two points. I predict scenes of jubilation, as Michael Murphy becomes only the second man to bring Sam to the hills.

Where the Final will be won and lost

With the All-Ireland final only days away, I look at the key areas which may decide the destination of the Sam Maguire Cup.

 

The Midfield battle.

The battle for dominance in the middle of the park will be one of the most intriguing clashes on Sunday. Barry Moran has been on the periphery of the Mayo panel since 2005, but his inter-county career has been plagued with injuries. This year, he has finally been able to establish himself in the team and get a consistent run of games, and he has rewarded James Horan with some stellar performances. Aidan O’Shea has long been identified as one for the future since his hugely impressive performance in the 2008 All-Ireland minor final. However, it took him a while to become accustomed to the demands of senior football. His arrival as a substitute in the Connacht final proved to be the catalyst for their victory, and he was particularly impressive in the semi-final, where his industry and hunger for work caused lots of problem for Dublin.

Neil Gallagher gave one of the best midfield performances ever for Donegal in the semi-final victory over Cork. He dominated the aerial exchanges, making several wonderful high catches. He has been in great form this year, and he will hope to provide Donegal with a stranglehold in the middle of the field. Rory Kavanagh has also had an impressive year, and he has formed a strong partnership with Gallagher. They had no problems with the Cork midfield, who were regarded as the best in the country, so they certainly won’t fear the Mayo midfield. The partnership who can win the most possession in this sector, will give their team a great chance of winning the final.

Karl Lacey v Alan Dillon.

In the aftermath of Mayo’s victory over Dublin, Monaghan midfielder Dick Clerkin suggested that this match-up may not just decide the destination of the Sam Maguire cup, but also the winner of this year’s Footballer of the Year. Both players have been on the top of their game throughout the Championship, and it appears likely that they will pair up against each other on September 23.

Dillon has been one of the top players in the country over the last decade, but an All-Ireland medal has eluded him so far. He played in the 2004 and 2006 finals, but Mayo and Dillon crashed and burned in both those finals, so he will be hoping it will be third time lucky this year. He has been man of the match in their last two games against Down and Dublin, and he is very much the conductor of the Mayo forward line. He is also renowned for his ability to kick long range points, and this will be crucial to Mayo’s game plan.

Lacey had an excellent game in the semi-final against Cork, where he added two points to a superb defensive display. His shoulder on Pearse O’Neill, a man almost twice his size, showed how strong he is, and no one gets past the Four Masters man easily. He will need to be at his best again in the final if he is to curb the influence of Dillon. Lacey will know that if he can prevent Dillon from having a big impact, he will have played a huge role in helping Donegal beat the men from the West.

The Free-takers.

The role of the free-takers on Sunday’s final cannot be understated. Last year’s decider was won by a late free from Stephen Cluxton, while the man of the match in the 2010 All-Ireland final was Daniel Goulding of Cork, who kicked seven points from placed balls. Both sides will be depending on their free-takers to keep their nerve in the most pressurised situations of their career.

Mayo’s Cillian O’Connor showed that he could handle the pressure in the semi-final against Dublin. Mayo got off to a bad start, but he landed two ‘45’s into a sea of blue in Hill 16. If he hadn’t  landed those crucial scores, Mayo may have struggled to settle into the game. O’Connor is only twenty years old, but he showed maturity in last year’s Connacht final with a master class of free taking, despite blustery conditions. Donegal will be wary of O’Connor’s ability and will try and limit the amount of opportunities he gets.

Michael Murphy and Colm McFadden have been very reliable with their frees this year. The only blemish on Murphy’s record was against Kerry, when he dragged some of his placed balls wide. McFadden is joint top scorer in the Championship this year with 3-28, with fourteen of those points coming from frees and one ‘45’. Both players will be hoping to get some easy frees at the start of the match to ease their way into the contest.

Donegal’s Full-Forward line v Mayo’s Full back line.

In the semi-final, Mayo’s Full-back line performed superbly against Dublin’s much feared forward line. Ger Cafferky won his duel with Bernard Brogan, Kevin Keane had an influential game, and Keith Higgins gave a typically ferocious corner back display, culminating in him clearing the ball off the line in the dying seconds.

Colm Mcfadden has received the most plaudits of the Donegal forwards this year, but Murphy and Paddy McBrearty have assisted him greatly. They may not have had the same kind of scoring tally, but their selfless running and work-rate, has been a key factor in Donegal’s success. Murphy is one of the best ball winning full forwards in the country, but Donegal will need to get better service into him in the final. Likewise, McBrearty was causing havoc to Noel O’Leary in the first half against Cork, but he was not utilised enough.

This area will prove crucial on Sunday. Mayo will be desperate to stop Donegal scoring goals, and they will be hoping that they will get plenty of protection from their half-back line. In the league game in March, McFadden scored seven points and Murphy got five points, while Cafferky was sent off. The Mayo full-back line has improved significantly since then, but they will need to have their best performance of the year to stop the Donegal forwards.

The Sideline.

The battle on the sideline will be just as fascinating as the battle on the field. Jim McGuinness and James Horan are the two most highly regarded young managers in the country and they will put their rising reputations on the line against each other on Sunday. Both their managerial tenures have followed similar paths. They both took over their teams when they were at a low ebb, led them to provincial titles in their first year, and have followed this up by taking them to the All-Ireland final in their second year.

McGuinness’ decision to introduce David Walsh against Cork proved to be one of the turning points in the match, and he has been praised for making effective substitutions this season. He has won the tactical battle in each of the games he has played, leaving managers of the calibre of Mickey Harte and Jack O’Connor in his wake. McGuinness was criticised for not changing his tactics as the game drifted away from Donegal in last year’s semi-final, and it would be interesting to see how he would respond if he found himself in that position again.

James Horan’s tactical moves helped Mayo win the Connacht title and he also masterminded a historic victory last year over the reigning All-Ireland champions Cork. He also impressed against Dublin when they started to claw back into mayo’s lead in the semi-final and he made good substitutions which helped to kill their momentum.

Horan showed he was not afraid to make tough decisions and this was seen when he left out Mayo’s record point scorer, Conor Mortimor for the Championship. Likewise, McGuinness made a big decision to drop All-Star Kevin Cassidy. Both managers will have to be prepared to make more big decisions in the final if they are to guide their team to Sam.